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The Iranian Missile "Mistake"

Updated: Jan 13, 2020

What's the deal with this Ukrainian passenger plane apparently being shot down just hours after the Iranians fired off multiple ballistic missiles in response to the US killing of General Qassem Suleimani? I know it sounds like a soap opera being played out on an international scale. I'm going to give you my take on this - which will make it sound more like a political thriller.

Here's what we know: Iranian Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAM) from a Sayyad-2 system, based on - but upgraded from - the Russian S-300 (SAM) system shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane mere minutes after it took off from Tehran (Iran's Capital) only a few hours after the Iranian military launched less than a dozen Shahab-3 Surface-to-Surface Missiles (SSM) - based on the North Korean Nodong-1 SSM - at two different Iraqi military bases where US forces are known to reside.

I believe the desired belief we are to have is that Iran, in a wildly energized military readiness situation, accidentally shot down this Ukrainian airliner, thinking it to be a potential US bomber or drone seeking to ramp up the already electric wartime potential. Puhleeeeaaaase! President Trump is not a good liar, which is one the reasons I like him. When he sounds like he's telling the truth, he is - because he sucks at lying. In my opinion one of two reasons for his lying: He doesn't want to say, "It's classified and we're still investigating." The other option is he just wants to say something that will make it sound to the Iranians that we're really wanting to avoid all out war. Either way, he's lying.

Let me remind you that this is simply my opinion, and not based on any known facts in this particular case, but on 12 years in Army intelligence as an intelligence collector and a good working knowledge of international espionage and counterespionage concepts. I believe it was 100% intentional, but not for reasons you think. Let me explain.

The Russians have one of the most expansive spy networks and operations in the world. They have been doing this a long time, as most of their spy program leaders are soviet holdovers from the KGB, and they are very good at it. The Russians hate all the satellite countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union. Remember, Putin was a KGB agent in the USSR before its breakup in 1991. The Ukraine Wanted to join North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) soon after the breakup, as they absolutely hated the Russians, as did all the former Soviet satellites. In 2008 Ukraine officially petitioned to join NATO. That petition was tabled in 2010 when the new president wanted to remain non-aligned. In 2014 the president fled the country amid unrest. Seeing this as an opportunity, Russia invaded the province of Crimea in 2014, causing Ukraine to seek joining NATO as a priority.

Russia and Iran have officially been allied since 2015 with the adoption of the Russia-Syria-Iran-Iraq coalition (RSII Coalition), though they have been partners in crime (my term) for decades. As an alliance goes, your enemy is my enemy and my enemy is yours. I believe the Ukrainians had someone on that plane that would have either given Ukraine info regarding ways to better their standing with joining NATO or harmed Russia in a major international scandal, possibly to even pressure the Russians to withdraw from Crimea. In any case, Russia needed that plane to not make it to it's ultimate target. Once a flagged plane from another country lifts off, it becomes sovereign territory of its mother country, akin to an embassy is legally property of the nation whose flag flies over it. Had the Iranian Air Force scrambled jets to take down the plane, that would be an act of war.

Enter the attack on the US Bases. Iran is scared of Trump, no matter what the press wants you to hear. We can take out one of their prime generals and they never saw it coming. Trump didn't even give them warning by informing the Democrats in Congress, who would have only too willingly informed the Iranians to further discredit Trump in the world. The base attack was for two reasons: To give the Iranians a chance to save face, even though the missiles were designed to miss - I mean why piss of Trump and the Americans even more that they are now. And second: To give potential cover to an intentional - but "accidental" - missile firing to down an aircraft that they can't legally shoot down for their Russian friends. Win/Win, right?

I'm putting this out for two reasons: 1) To let you know there are many forces at play here, which is why Trump just can't give the press the reasons he "thinks" it's just a mistake, and 2) To be able to say, "I told you so", when it bears out that I'm right.

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